eagle0/docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md

Human 3 vs AI 4+ Behavior Analysis

Source save: game_1f949539969b79f6.zip

Downloaded/analyzed: July 14, 2026

Game span in structured decisions: August 371 through September 391.

Human player: faction 3.

Comparison groups:

• Human 3: the human player.
• AI 4-6: surviving equivalent-start AI factions in the latest save.
• AI 7-9: equivalent-start AI factions that were reduced or eliminated earlier.
• AI 4+: all equivalent-start AI factions together.

Factions 1 and 2 are intentionally not the main comparison group because their starts are structurally different.

Executive Summary

Human 3 plays materially differently from AI factions 4+ in ways that plausibly explain better survival and growth:

• Human 3 trains far more often, especially in hostile-border provinces.
• Human 3 rests almost never.
• Human 3 recruits and divines more, creating a much larger hero base.
• Human 3 uses Feast more and HeroGift less than the surviving AI.
• The surviving AI factions spend more turns on Improve and Rest, especially when small.

The clearest next target is Rest: AI 4-6 still rests far more than the human player, especially at 1-2 provinces.

Overall PlayerCommands

These counts exclude battle aftermath and other non-player-command phases.

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6	AI 4+
Improve	152 / 520 = 29.2%	393 / 993 = 39.6%	546 / 1449 = 37.7%
Train	61 / 520 = 11.7%	47 / 993 = 4.7%	49 / 1449 = 3.4%
Rest	4 / 520 = 0.8%	93 / 993 = 9.4%	169 / 1449 = 11.7%
Feast	45 / 520 = 8.7%	59 / 993 = 5.9%	77 / 1449 = 5.3%
HeroGift	8 / 520 = 1.5%	35 / 993 = 3.5%	41 / 1449 = 2.8%
March	35 / 520 = 6.7%	73 / 993 = 7.4%	188 / 1449 = 13.0%
RecruitHeroes	33 / 520 = 6.3%	23 / 993 = 2.3%	26 / 1449 = 1.8%
Divine	19 / 520 = 3.7%	13 / 993 = 1.3%	18 / 1449 = 1.2%

The all-AI March rate is inflated by AI 7-9. Surviving AI 4-6 marched at roughly the same overall rate as Human 3.

Size-Normalized Differences

The largest differences remain visible when comparing similar faction sizes.

3-4 Provinces

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6
Train	25 / 110 = 22.7%	5 / 220 = 2.3%
Rest	2 / 110 = 1.8%	1 / 220 = 0.5%
Feast	5 / 110 = 4.5%	31 / 220 = 14.1%
RecruitHeroes	4 / 110 = 3.6%	9 / 220 = 4.1%
March	3 / 110 = 2.7%	20 / 220 = 9.1%

At 3-4 provinces, Human 3 is much more training-heavy. AI 4-6 uses Feast and Alms more in this bucket.

5-6 Provinces

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6
Train	19 / 139 = 13.7%	3 / 248 = 1.2%
Rest	0 / 139 = 0.0%	4 / 248 = 1.6%
Feast	15 / 139 = 10.8%	7 / 248 = 2.8%
RecruitHeroes	9 / 139 = 6.5%	6 / 248 = 2.4%
March	14 / 139 = 10.1%	37 / 248 = 14.9%

At 5-6 provinces, Human 3 keeps investing in Train, Feast, and recruitment. AI 4-6 still prefers Improve and March more often.

Hostile-Border Provinces

Hostile-border provinces are where strategic readiness matters most.

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6
Improve	102 / 348 = 29.3%	127 / 428 = 29.7%
Train	58 / 348 = 16.7%	16 / 428 = 3.7%
Rest	2 / 348 = 0.6%	36 / 428 = 8.4%
Feast	36 / 348 = 10.3%	14 / 428 = 3.3%
HeroGift	6 / 348 = 1.7%	25 / 428 = 5.8%
ArmTroops	12 / 348 = 3.4%	25 / 428 = 5.8%
Diplomacy	4 / 348 = 1.1%	32 / 428 = 7.5%

Improve rates are nearly identical on hostile borders. The big behavioral split is what happens around that Improve baseline:

• Human 3 adds much more Train and Feast.
• AI 4-6 adds much more Rest, HeroGift, and Diplomacy.

Command Choice When Available

Choice rate when a command was available in the acting province is a better signal of priority than raw counts.

All PlayerCommands

Command available	Human 3 chose	AI 4-6 chose
Improve	152 / 401 = 37.9%	393 / 777 = 50.6%
Train	61 / 382 = 16.0%	47 / 718 = 6.5%
Rest	4 / 404 = 1.0%	93 / 872 = 10.7%
Feast	45 / 395 = 11.4%	59 / 803 = 7.3%
RecruitHeroes	33 / 34 = 97.1%	23 / 23 = 100.0%
Divine	19 / 28 = 67.9%	13 / 28 = 46.4%

The AI does recruit when recruitment is available. The recruitment gap is upstream: Human 3 appears to generate or discover more recruitment opportunities, helped by more Divine usage.

Hostile Border, 3-6 Provinces

This is probably the most useful apples-to-apples slice.

Command available	Human 3 chose	AI 4-6 chose
Train	42 / 156 = 26.9%	6 / 155 = 3.9%
Rest	2 / 156 = 1.3%	1 / 162 = 0.6%
Feast	15 / 154 = 9.7%	9 / 158 = 5.7%
HeroGift	4 / 154 = 2.6%	17 / 159 = 10.7%
March	8 / 156 = 5.1%	17 / 162 = 10.5%
ArmTroops	7 / 13 = 53.8%	22 / 37 = 59.5%
Diplomacy	3 / 153 = 2.0%	14 / 151 = 9.3%

The Rest gap is not large in this exact slice, which suggests the recent Rest changes are helping once AI factions reach mid-size. The Training gap remains very large.

AI Decision Reasons

Top AI 4-6 reasons:

Count	Reason
220	chosen neutral neighbors: Improve b/c nothing better: ImproveCommandSelector.commandSelection
121	traveling
63	chosen no neutral neighbors: Improve b/c nothing better: ImproveCommandSelector.commandSelection
49	chosen neutral neighbors: rest
46	maybeAlmsCommandForProvince
45	Get support up in leader province
44	chosenUniversalCommand: rest
30	offer truce with hostile neighbor to buy development time
29	chosen neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand
25	chosenUniversalCommand: rest: feast instead of rest

AI Rest reasons:

Count	Reason
120	chosenUniversalCommand: rest
49	chosen neutral neighbors: rest

AI Train reasons:

Count	Reason
29	chosen neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand
14	fulfill UpgradeBattalionQuest (train progress)
5	prepare attack with hostile neighbors: train troops in preparation for attack: chosenTrainCommand
1	chosen no neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand

This reinforces that Train is usually a fallback or quest/prep behavior for the AI, while Human 3 uses it as a primary frontier readiness command.

Findings To Act On

1. Rest Is Still Too Common At Small Sizes

Surviving AI 4-6 at 1-2 provinces:

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6
Rest	1 / 45 = 2.2%	87 / 466 = 18.7%
Improve	22 / 45 = 48.9%	243 / 466 = 52.1%
Train	0 / 45 = 0.0%	39 / 466 = 8.4%

Small AI factions still spend a large share of turns resting. Some of this may be legitimate recovery after pressure, but Human 3 almost never used Rest even while small.

The first follow-up should inspect and adjust chosenUniversalCommand: rest and chosen neutral neighbors: rest.

Likely rule direction:

• Rest should be a stronger choice only when vigor is actually threatening defense/readiness.
• Rest should lose to Improve or Train when heroes are merely somewhat tired and enough heroes remain available.
• Rest should be especially suspicious for small factions with hostile borders or poor strategic position.

2. Train Is Under-Prioritized On Hostile Borders

At hostile-border provinces with 3-6 province factions, Human 3 chose Train 26.9% of the time when available. AI 4-6 chose Train 3.9% of the time.

This is probably the highest-value non-Rest difference.

3. Divine/Recruitment Pipeline Is Weaker For AI

Recruit itself is fine: AI 4-6 chose RecruitHeroes 100% of the time when available.

The gap is that Human 3 used Divine more often and ended with many more heroes.

4. Feast vs HeroGift Still Differs

At hostile-border provinces:

Command	Human 3	AI 4-6
Feast	10.3%	3.3%
HeroGift	1.7%	5.8%

On hostile borders with 3-6 province factions, AI 4-6 chose HeroGift 10.7% when available, while Human 3 chose it 2.6%.

The earlier Feast/Gift work helped, but AI still appears more Gift-heavy in some comparable contexts.

Next Step: Rest

Start with Rest because it is both high-volume and likely interfering with better commands.

Questions for the Rest change:

1. Which path produces most of the bad Rest choices: chosenUniversalCommand: rest or chosen neutral neighbors: rest?
2. Are these provinces actually under-defended or just moderately fatigued?
3. When Rest is chosen, were Improve and Train also available?
4. Should small factions use a stricter Rest threshold unless vigor is defense-critical?
5. Should Rest defer to Train on hostile borders when enough heroes can still defend?

Desired outcome:

• Keep Rest for genuinely exhausted/defense-critical provinces.
• Reduce Rest when it is just a low-value recovery command.
• Prefer Improve or Train when those commands can improve long-term survival without creating immediate vulnerability.