From aaa3457f697e13dd35eed090fe78886c8be59052 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Dan Crosby Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:00:36 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] Document human 3 vs AI behavior findings --- docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md | 227 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 227 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md diff --git a/docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md b/docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..4d1e098c67 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/human3-vs-ai-2026-07-14.md @@ -0,0 +1,227 @@ +# Human 3 vs AI 4+ Behavior Analysis + +Source save: `game_1f949539969b79f6.zip` + +Downloaded/analyzed: July 14, 2026 + +Game span in structured decisions: August 371 through September 391. + +Human player: faction 3. + +Comparison groups: + +- `Human 3`: the human player. +- `AI 4-6`: surviving equivalent-start AI factions in the latest save. +- `AI 7-9`: equivalent-start AI factions that were reduced or eliminated earlier. +- `AI 4+`: all equivalent-start AI factions together. + +Factions 1 and 2 are intentionally not the main comparison group because their starts are structurally different. + +## Executive Summary + +Human 3 plays materially differently from AI factions 4+ in ways that plausibly explain better survival and growth: + +- Human 3 trains far more often, especially in hostile-border provinces. +- Human 3 rests almost never. +- Human 3 recruits and divines more, creating a much larger hero base. +- Human 3 uses Feast more and HeroGift less than the surviving AI. +- The surviving AI factions spend more turns on Improve and Rest, especially when small. + +The clearest next target is Rest: AI 4-6 still rests far more than the human player, especially at 1-2 provinces. + +## Overall PlayerCommands + +These counts exclude battle aftermath and other non-player-command phases. + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | AI 4+ | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Improve | 152 / 520 = 29.2% | 393 / 993 = 39.6% | 546 / 1449 = 37.7% | +| Train | 61 / 520 = 11.7% | 47 / 993 = 4.7% | 49 / 1449 = 3.4% | +| Rest | 4 / 520 = 0.8% | 93 / 993 = 9.4% | 169 / 1449 = 11.7% | +| Feast | 45 / 520 = 8.7% | 59 / 993 = 5.9% | 77 / 1449 = 5.3% | +| HeroGift | 8 / 520 = 1.5% | 35 / 993 = 3.5% | 41 / 1449 = 2.8% | +| March | 35 / 520 = 6.7% | 73 / 993 = 7.4% | 188 / 1449 = 13.0% | +| RecruitHeroes | 33 / 520 = 6.3% | 23 / 993 = 2.3% | 26 / 1449 = 1.8% | +| Divine | 19 / 520 = 3.7% | 13 / 993 = 1.3% | 18 / 1449 = 1.2% | + +The all-AI March rate is inflated by AI 7-9. Surviving AI 4-6 marched at roughly the same overall rate as Human 3. + +## Size-Normalized Differences + +The largest differences remain visible when comparing similar faction sizes. + +### 3-4 Provinces + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Train | 25 / 110 = 22.7% | 5 / 220 = 2.3% | +| Rest | 2 / 110 = 1.8% | 1 / 220 = 0.5% | +| Feast | 5 / 110 = 4.5% | 31 / 220 = 14.1% | +| RecruitHeroes | 4 / 110 = 3.6% | 9 / 220 = 4.1% | +| March | 3 / 110 = 2.7% | 20 / 220 = 9.1% | + +At 3-4 provinces, Human 3 is much more training-heavy. AI 4-6 uses Feast and Alms more in this bucket. + +### 5-6 Provinces + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Train | 19 / 139 = 13.7% | 3 / 248 = 1.2% | +| Rest | 0 / 139 = 0.0% | 4 / 248 = 1.6% | +| Feast | 15 / 139 = 10.8% | 7 / 248 = 2.8% | +| RecruitHeroes | 9 / 139 = 6.5% | 6 / 248 = 2.4% | +| March | 14 / 139 = 10.1% | 37 / 248 = 14.9% | + +At 5-6 provinces, Human 3 keeps investing in Train, Feast, and recruitment. AI 4-6 still prefers Improve and March more often. + +## Hostile-Border Provinces + +Hostile-border provinces are where strategic readiness matters most. + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Improve | 102 / 348 = 29.3% | 127 / 428 = 29.7% | +| Train | 58 / 348 = 16.7% | 16 / 428 = 3.7% | +| Rest | 2 / 348 = 0.6% | 36 / 428 = 8.4% | +| Feast | 36 / 348 = 10.3% | 14 / 428 = 3.3% | +| HeroGift | 6 / 348 = 1.7% | 25 / 428 = 5.8% | +| ArmTroops | 12 / 348 = 3.4% | 25 / 428 = 5.8% | +| Diplomacy | 4 / 348 = 1.1% | 32 / 428 = 7.5% | + +Improve rates are nearly identical on hostile borders. The big behavioral split is what happens around that Improve baseline: + +- Human 3 adds much more Train and Feast. +- AI 4-6 adds much more Rest, HeroGift, and Diplomacy. + +## Command Choice When Available + +Choice rate when a command was available in the acting province is a better signal of priority than raw counts. + +### All PlayerCommands + +| Command available | Human 3 chose | AI 4-6 chose | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Improve | 152 / 401 = 37.9% | 393 / 777 = 50.6% | +| Train | 61 / 382 = 16.0% | 47 / 718 = 6.5% | +| Rest | 4 / 404 = 1.0% | 93 / 872 = 10.7% | +| Feast | 45 / 395 = 11.4% | 59 / 803 = 7.3% | +| RecruitHeroes | 33 / 34 = 97.1% | 23 / 23 = 100.0% | +| Divine | 19 / 28 = 67.9% | 13 / 28 = 46.4% | + +The AI does recruit when recruitment is available. The recruitment gap is upstream: Human 3 appears to generate or discover more recruitment opportunities, helped by more Divine usage. + +### Hostile Border, 3-6 Provinces + +This is probably the most useful apples-to-apples slice. + +| Command available | Human 3 chose | AI 4-6 chose | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Train | 42 / 156 = 26.9% | 6 / 155 = 3.9% | +| Rest | 2 / 156 = 1.3% | 1 / 162 = 0.6% | +| Feast | 15 / 154 = 9.7% | 9 / 158 = 5.7% | +| HeroGift | 4 / 154 = 2.6% | 17 / 159 = 10.7% | +| March | 8 / 156 = 5.1% | 17 / 162 = 10.5% | +| ArmTroops | 7 / 13 = 53.8% | 22 / 37 = 59.5% | +| Diplomacy | 3 / 153 = 2.0% | 14 / 151 = 9.3% | + +The Rest gap is not large in this exact slice, which suggests the recent Rest changes are helping once AI factions reach mid-size. The Training gap remains very large. + +## AI Decision Reasons + +Top AI 4-6 reasons: + +| Count | Reason | +| ---: | --- | +| 220 | `chosen neutral neighbors: Improve b/c nothing better: ImproveCommandSelector.commandSelection` | +| 121 | `traveling` | +| 63 | `chosen no neutral neighbors: Improve b/c nothing better: ImproveCommandSelector.commandSelection` | +| 49 | `chosen neutral neighbors: rest` | +| 46 | `maybeAlmsCommandForProvince` | +| 45 | `Get support up in leader province` | +| 44 | `chosenUniversalCommand: rest` | +| 30 | `offer truce with hostile neighbor to buy development time` | +| 29 | `chosen neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand` | +| 25 | `chosenUniversalCommand: rest: feast instead of rest` | + +AI Rest reasons: + +| Count | Reason | +| ---: | --- | +| 120 | `chosenUniversalCommand: rest` | +| 49 | `chosen neutral neighbors: rest` | + +AI Train reasons: + +| Count | Reason | +| ---: | --- | +| 29 | `chosen neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand` | +| 14 | `fulfill UpgradeBattalionQuest (train progress)` | +| 5 | `prepare attack with hostile neighbors: train troops in preparation for attack: chosenTrainCommand` | +| 1 | `chosen no neutral neighbors: train b/c nothing better: chosenTrainCommand` | + +This reinforces that Train is usually a fallback or quest/prep behavior for the AI, while Human 3 uses it as a primary frontier readiness command. + +## Findings To Act On + +### 1. Rest Is Still Too Common At Small Sizes + +Surviving AI 4-6 at 1-2 provinces: + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Rest | 1 / 45 = 2.2% | 87 / 466 = 18.7% | +| Improve | 22 / 45 = 48.9% | 243 / 466 = 52.1% | +| Train | 0 / 45 = 0.0% | 39 / 466 = 8.4% | + +Small AI factions still spend a large share of turns resting. Some of this may be legitimate recovery after pressure, but Human 3 almost never used Rest even while small. + +The first follow-up should inspect and adjust `chosenUniversalCommand: rest` and `chosen neutral neighbors: rest`. + +Likely rule direction: + +- Rest should be a stronger choice only when vigor is actually threatening defense/readiness. +- Rest should lose to Improve or Train when heroes are merely somewhat tired and enough heroes remain available. +- Rest should be especially suspicious for small factions with hostile borders or poor strategic position. + +### 2. Train Is Under-Prioritized On Hostile Borders + +At hostile-border provinces with 3-6 province factions, Human 3 chose Train 26.9% of the time when available. AI 4-6 chose Train 3.9% of the time. + +This is probably the highest-value non-Rest difference. + +### 3. Divine/Recruitment Pipeline Is Weaker For AI + +Recruit itself is fine: AI 4-6 chose RecruitHeroes 100% of the time when available. + +The gap is that Human 3 used Divine more often and ended with many more heroes. + +### 4. Feast vs HeroGift Still Differs + +At hostile-border provinces: + +| Command | Human 3 | AI 4-6 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| Feast | 10.3% | 3.3% | +| HeroGift | 1.7% | 5.8% | + +On hostile borders with 3-6 province factions, AI 4-6 chose HeroGift 10.7% when available, while Human 3 chose it 2.6%. + +The earlier Feast/Gift work helped, but AI still appears more Gift-heavy in some comparable contexts. + +## Next Step: Rest + +Start with Rest because it is both high-volume and likely interfering with better commands. + +Questions for the Rest change: + +1. Which path produces most of the bad Rest choices: `chosenUniversalCommand: rest` or `chosen neutral neighbors: rest`? +2. Are these provinces actually under-defended or just moderately fatigued? +3. When Rest is chosen, were Improve and Train also available? +4. Should small factions use a stricter Rest threshold unless vigor is defense-critical? +5. Should Rest defer to Train on hostile borders when enough heroes can still defend? + +Desired outcome: + +- Keep Rest for genuinely exhausted/defense-critical provinces. +- Reduce Rest when it is just a low-value recovery command. +- Prefer Improve or Train when those commands can improve long-term survival without creating immediate vulnerability.